At least both are offering a view on a market bottom. Remember the Dow has fallen 6000 points from its level a year ago and the S&P has fallen nearly 700 points. That is 40-45% decline already. Is another 20% possible?
In my view, next year the market is going nowhere. For every $1 going into a promising recovery story another $1 will come from a potential disaster. There will be recycling of cash from one stock to another. I have never seen or heard such gloom in the city. Everyone is talking of a paradigm shift in the world. And I am a big sceptic of paradigm shifts just as I was when all and sundry talked about the disappearance of the business cycle and an everlasting Goldilocks economy. The reality we eventually find is always more mundane.
Yes there will opportunisits like Sarkozy who will use this as a moment to gather support for a previously dying Francophile model of controlled capitalism. The Spanish after the collapse of building sector, in which it seems every Spaniard is employed, will belatedly thank the great unwind for the opportunity to return to long siestas. Even the Americans under Obama (10 days to go) will move towards a gentler form of capitalism. Who will oppose them? The rising powers of China and Russia? I don't think so.
The anti-bubble crowd will take control perhaps for the next decade and the bulls will fume and rage. But ultimately they will return in the echo of the 80s god Gordon Gecko's immortal words, "greed is good". Well greed may not be good right now, but it cannot be eradicated. You cannot legislate worldwide against it. And financial institutions and naked capitalism will emerge again because it is not an ideology that can be untaught. It is human nature. And you cannot legislate forever against human nature.